Modi-Trump meeting in focus – Trade policies & tariffs under discussion
The Indian stock market witnessed a positive start on Thursday, February 13, 2025, as both the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 traded higher amid mixed global cues. At 11 AM, the Sensex climbed 446.56 points or 0.59% to reach 76,617.64, while the Nifty 50 was up by 143.75 points or 0.62%, trading at 23,189.
Investor sentiment appeared to be buoyant, driven by strong corporate earnings, global developments, and expectations surrounding a high-profile political meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump scheduled for later today.
Key Market Drivers
1. Modi-Trump Meeting in Focus
A significant event impacting market sentiment is the highly anticipated meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump. The meeting is expected to discuss economic and trade policies, with a particular focus on reciprocal tariffs on US goods imposed by other nations. Investors are closely monitoring this interaction as any major announcements could have far-reaching implications on trade, foreign investments, and market volatility.
2. Ex-Dividend Stocks in Focus
Several companies, including MRF, National Aluminium Co (Nalco), Bharat Dynamics, Cummins India, and Escorts Kubota, are set to trade ex-dividend on February 14, 2025. These firms have declared interim dividends for shareholders, leading to increased investor attention. Stocks of these companies may experience heightened trading activity as investors adjust their portfolios accordingly.
3. SIP Performance and Investor Sentiment
According to a study conducted by Fisdom, Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) initiated in 2021 and 2022 have yielded positive returns. However, investments made within the past 9 to 10 months have seen negative returns, raising concerns among new investors. The report indicates that market volatility and short-term corrections may be affecting recent SIP investments, while long-term investors continue to benefit from the power of compounding and market resilience.
Sectoral Performance
1. Banking and Financials
The Bank Nifty index showed strong momentum, with leading banking stocks contributing significantly to the market’s gains. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and SBI recorded moderate gains as investors reacted positively to earnings stability and an optimistic economic outlook.
2. IT and Technology
Information Technology (IT) stocks remained under pressure due to global uncertainties and weak earnings projections from US tech firms. Companies such as Infosys, TCS, and Wipro saw marginal declines as concerns over rising inflation in the US and slowdown in IT spending weighed on investor sentiment.
3. Energy and Oil & Gas
Oil and gas stocks traded mixed as crude oil prices fluctuated globally. While Reliance Industries witnessed gains amid expectations of a strong retail and telecom performance, ONGC and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) faced slight corrections due to fluctuating oil prices and concerns over OPEC production cuts.
4. Auto and Consumer Durables
The auto sector saw a rally with Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, and Mahindra & Mahindra gaining amid positive sales growth and demand recovery in both domestic and export markets. Consumer durables stocks, including Titan and Havells, also witnessed upward movement, supported by festive season demand expectations.
Global Market Influence
1. US Market Trends
Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of key inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 faced slight declines amid concerns over tech sector earnings and monetary tightening. The cautious sentiment in the US markets has had a mild impact on Asian and European markets.
2. Asian Markets Performance
Asian markets opened mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 posting gains amid strong corporate earnings, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index faced downward pressure due to regulatory concerns and economic slowdown fears. Indian markets, while resilient, remain sensitive to global trade uncertainties.
Rupee and Commodity Market Update
1. Indian Rupee Movement
The Indian Rupee traded flat against the US dollar, reflecting global currency fluctuations and cautious trading ahead of the Modi-Trump meeting. Currency traders remain alert to any announcements that could impact bilateral trade relations and foreign exchange reserves.
2. Crude Oil and Gold Prices
Crude Oil: International crude oil prices fluctuated as traders weighed OPEC+ production cuts against weakening global demand. Brent crude hovered around $82 per barrel, with analysts predicting range-bound movement in the near term.
Gold Prices: Gold remained steady, trading around ₹62,500 per 10 grams in the Indian market as investors sought safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties.
Market Outlook and Expert Opinions
Analysts suggest that the Nifty 50 and Sensex may continue to exhibit short-term volatility due to global market movements, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments. However, strong domestic macroeconomic indicators and resilient corporate growth provide a positive long-term outlook.
Market experts recommend a sector-specific approach, advising investors to focus on sectors that demonstrate growth potential, such as banking, auto, and energy, while exercising caution in segments facing global headwinds, such as IT.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Sensex and Nifty continue to trade in the green, driven by positive domestic cues and global market trends.
Modi-Trump meeting remains a key event to watch, as discussions on trade policies could impact market direction and investor sentiment.
Dividend-paying stocks, including MRF and Nalco, are attracting investor attention, leading to heightened trading activity ahead of their ex-dividend date.
SIP investments initiated in 2021 and 2022 continue to yield positive returns, while recent investors face short-term market challenges.
Global markets remain mixed, with the US and China facing economic concerns, impacting Indian market sentiment.
Oil and gold prices remain steady, reflecting global economic trends and investor risk appetite.
Analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook, but caution against short-term market volatility due to geopolitical and economic developments.
The Indian stock market remains resilient, with Sensex and Nifty showing strong momentum despite global uncertainties. As investors navigate corporate earnings, policy developments, and geopolitical events, strategic investments in fundamentally strong sectors can offer long-term growth opportunities.
With the Modi-Trump meeting potentially influencing bilateral trade and market movements, the coming days could witness fluctuations across key indices. Investors should stay cautious, diversified, and informed to make the most of evolving market trends.
